Sunday, August 2, 2015

Did the Eagles overpay for DeMarco Murray?

There are those who have questioned the moves Chip Kelly made this offseason.

Chief among them was former Eagles tailback LeSean McCoy, who, after having played his entire life in the confines of Pennsylvania, resorted to what he thought was the obvious reason for his departure -- Chip Kelly not liking black players.

No mention of himself not fitting into the plan or anything like that, naturally.

But, McCoy's paranoia and unfounded stupidity aside, there was one primary reason why he was shipped to the NFL's Siberia -- money.

Philadelphia would have owed McCoy $11 million to play this season. By sending him to the Bills, and by adding DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, the Eagles found themselves with two tailbacks for the price of one. 


Not to mention, a young and promising linebacker in Kiko Alonso.

That's three excellent players in exchange for one decent player. What could be wrong with that?

Plenty, according to Bill Barnwell at Grantland. 

"In a year, it will be clear whether Murray was establishing a new level of performance (and health) or whether Chip Kelly bought high on a talented-if-brittle running back," Barnwell wrote.

He contends the Eagles overpaid for Murray because of what he calls the back's "outlier" 2014 season -- Murray led the NFL with 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns, but had until then missed 11 games in three seasons with one injury or another.

But after that outing in '14, Murray saw himself due some money. He found it in Philadelphia: a five-year, $42 million contract ($21m guaranteed) that outpaced the offer coming from the Cowboys, by a long way. Dallas put four years and $24 million on the table. 

Murray chuckled and typed "Philadelphia" into Google Maps.

The question of whether the Eagles overpaid him is that of potential production minus potential liability, chief of which is that potential for injury.

Still, he comes with a score of up-sides.

Murray is a traditional, patient rusher. Unlike the hippity, hoppity LeSean McCoy of 2014, a man who would try to out-juke bunches of tacklers by running east to west in search of that big gash, Murray is someone with a natural instinct for the hole, a north-south power runner who will cut once if need be before committing to this lane or that, for good or ill.

Behind the Cowboys' stout offensive line last season, that came mostly for the good. That natural instinct comes easily when lanes are made for you more often than not.

Comparisions with the Eagles' current front unit tend to elicit frowns these days for those clad in green. Philadelphia had fielded a contender of their own up front recently before a rash of injuries in 2014 very nearly saw tight end Brent Celek used as a reserve lineman.

Now, with the departures of Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans from the guard positions, the Eagles' interior run game has certainly taken something of a hit. How much of one remains to be seen. 

But center Jason Kelce is no slouch, and what they lack on the inside can be made up for outside. Tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson remain -- experience and skill to the left and youth, speed, and skill to the right will provide decent edge blocking and make outside rushes easier, combined with able blocking from tight ends and receivers that is par for the course on any Kelly offense.

Looking fair so far, then, the Murray signing. Now, about those injuries.

Chip Kelly was first among observers to note Murray's history. It actually seemed to be on his mind a lot of the time -- he said this spring that he pursued players who had been injured, of the belief that they would be undervalued. Some time off, a quick patch-up job, and they would be ready to go. His play for quarterback Sam Bradford (two torn ACLs) and cornerback/safety Walter Thurmond (torn pectoral) attest to that thinking. 

Murray has had a sprained MCL, a sprained foot, a broken ankle, and hamstring problems in the pros. He dislocated his patella at Oklahoma with Bradford as his quarterback. Even in his banner year of 2014, he had an issue with a broken hand, which he played through in a fine effort against the Colts. 

The Cowboys took every advantage of him while he was well last year, handing off to him 392 times, a full eighty rushes more than the NFL's next-most -- LeSean McCoy.

That's a lot of bruises.

It's also 497 total touches, including receptions and postseason rushes. Many things have to come together for a player at any position to be used that much with corresponding results. Scheme, state of mind, protection, and health all preclude a rusher's production.

And all were a kind of perfect storm for Murray last season.

But the question remains if Dallas took the bloom off his rose with all that overwork. The Eagles are giving him the kind of money that would demand he repeat (or vaguely approach) those efforts, but the addition of Ryan Mathews at the No. 2 spot would seem to indicate a share-and-share-alike situation for the two coming out of the backfield.

A 2nd-or-3rd down carry here, a series or drive there, could prevent an injury to their No. 1 that would have come earlier with more carries. Mathews could end up extending Murray's career while providing stability to the Eagles' ground game.

Add to that the confidence with which Chip Kelly employs a strict sports science regimen onto his players, regulating their diets, workouts, and even sleep patterns. Kelly will be playing to a careful balance with Murray -- to not ask too much of him so as to not wake the menagerie of injuries that lurk beneath, and not to get scared of those injuries and ask too little of him with the money they're paying him.

Chip Kelly's offseason spending program would put him to the left of the political spectrum (as, frankly, would most), and time will tell if those investments pay off. His deal for cornerback Byron Maxwell turned the majority of heads: six years, $63 million. That number reflects the desperation the Eagles had (rightly) about their secondary position.

Things weren't nearly as tragic behind the quarterback. But Kelly and the gang feel the risks are worth the potential rewards. Murray has a history of missing time, but when on the gridiron posted a 4.95 yards per carry average before his breakout campaign in 2014, when he actually decreased per yard. 

Murray is 27 years old, three years out of a four year contract before he reaches the dreaded 30 -- the invisible benchmark that claims the reputations of running backs the league over. 

From now to then will determine whether not only his many acquisitions, but Chip Kelly himself, will be the bane or boon of modern Eagles history.

No comments:

Post a Comment